On paper, this appears to be a letdown spot for LSU after their miracle overtime win, as they now face Arkansas at night in Fayetteville. However, this game sets up well for LSU’s passing attack. Garrett Nussmeier struggles under pressure, but he’s one of the best passers in college football when given time to throw. I believe he will have that time here, as LSU ranks 12th in pass blocking, while Arkansas is just 81st in pressure rate and outside the top 100 in coverage rate. With the time to operate, I like LSU’s chances. The -132 line implies a 56.8% probability, but I have the Tigers winning 62.2%, suggesting the moneyline should be closer to -165.

The Razorbacks' 19-14 upset of Tennessee likely did a lot to cool the warming seat of coach Sam Pittman but they will hard pressed to duplicate the feat against surging LSU. The Tigers had a dramatic comeback to beat Ole Miss 29-26 in overtime last week. Although conventional thought would suggest the window is open for a letdown, we believe last week's signature win will be the galvanizing force this uneven team needs to finish strong down the stretch. The Hogs will be stubborn again but LSU prevails.