Arizona State won't have Sam Leavitt at QB this week, and the downgrade to Jeff Sims is considerable. I'm a big fan of what the Sun Devils have done this season, but Sims turns the ball over far too often to be trusted. Take a Bearcats team with a significant edge at QB.

This spread has climbed from around a field goal with the news that injured Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt will give way to Jeff Sims. The backup has loads of experience, having started at Georgia Tech and Nebraska, but is rusty, with two passes thrown on his log this season. What tilts the scales to Cincinnati, besides a superior passing attack, is the kickoff time. A noon starts means the Sun Devils' body clocks will be at 9 a.m., and teams in those increasingly common scenarios have fared poorly this season. What's more, this will mark Cincy's fourth start at high noon. The sun could bedevil the Sun Devils.

This had ticked up some this week and I wasn't sure if there was a concrete reason why, but now I know: ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt is out. I had read he got dinged up last week but didn't think it was serious. Leavitt has has thrown for 1,166 yards with eight TDs and is the team's second-leading rusher. So this still is likely going up some. Also one of those very tough early morning local time kickoffs for ASU. Cincinnati is just four points from being unbeaten.