Ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll, Missouri may be the most overrated team in the country. The Tigers may be 4-0, but they've escaped in their last two games, against Boston College and Vanderbilt. On Saturday they will play their first road game of the season, at Texas A&M, which is a difficult place to play. I'm not sold on the Aggies yet, but they at the very least play excellent defense. I'll take A&M to cover this small number at home.

This game truly feels like a coin flip, and the only reason A&M is favored is because they play at home, where, if you pay attention, they haven't exactly been good against Power Four competition over the years.

I genuinely don't know how good either one of these teams is. A&M has looked better with Marcel Reed, while Mizzou's looked a step slower on offense. I do believe both defenses are solid, and the matchups play to that side of the ball.

We have yet to see Missouri's fast ball yet this season, but maybe leaving town for the first time all season will be the cold shower the Tigers need. Last year's Missouri team was 4-0 ATS on the road last year including a win as a home dog at Kentucky and a single-digit loss at Georgia. I think we see Missouri's best football of the season in one of the biggest games on a manageable schedule.

Missouri has the best defense Texas A&M has faced since its season opening loss to Notre Dame. Likewise, the Aggies are the best defensive team the Tigers have faced by a significant margin. This is a game I believe will be physical and ugly at times, where every possession will count. A final score in the range of 24-21 is what I am projecting here.

I have gone back and forth on the team I like to win outright, but one thing I am confident in is the under. Texas A&M has held four straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. Missouri gives up 219 yards per game (3rd fewest) and 12.0 points per game (8th fewest). Don't expect fireworks. Missouri 20, Texas A&M 19.