No doubt Miami is the superior team, but several factors work in Cal's favor. Its pass defense is suited to prevent big gains by the Hurricanes, the nation's top throwing team. Golden Bears RB Jaydn Ott, who led the Pac-12 in rushing a year ago, is expected to return from an injury layoff. The Bears are exiting a bye week. Their coaches are familiar with Miami QB Cam Ward, a transfer from former Pac-12 brother Washington State. Finally, the Canes must cope with a 10:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff. Add them up, and a cover with an admittedly small line is foreseeable.

Miami escaped the game it typically loses in heartbreaking fashion, but while I expect them to win here, the price on Cal is too good. The Bears have a strong pass rush, and Cam Ward, as we saw last week, makes bad decisions under pressure.

Under coach Justin Wilcox, the Cal program has been much more respectable than his 39-44 record suggests. The Bears have had numerous agonizing, close losses but have also earned a reputation as a giant killer of sorts, which included road win over UCLA last year to earn a bowl bid. Cal is off to a 3-1 start behind one of the stingiest defensive units in the country. This is a tough spot for a high-powered Miami club coming off a wild Friday night win over Virginia Tech that wasn't decided until a Hail Mary TD for the Hokies on the final play was overturned by replay. The Bears are historically stubborn in these spots, and we are counting on them to hang around again.