Bret Bielema is back! Penn State isn't the only unbeaten team on the field in Happy Valley on Saturday night, as Bielema's Fighting Illini is at 4-0 with a couple of rousing and impressive wins over Kansas and then last Friday in OT at a much-improved Nebraska. Bielema's teams, who in the past at Wisconsin and Arkansas have often offered good value as a dog, are beyond some of last season's yips, especially former Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer, who is on 10 TDP and no picks while completing better than 71% of his passes thus far. Altmyer's 4 picks doomed Illinois in this matchup a season ago at Champaign-Urbana, but his new more-careful self is just what Bielema has ordered. Play Illinois

Illinois embarks on one of its favorite road trips, having won outright in State College three seasons back and covering in eight of the past 11 trips. The Illini are healthy, the Nittany Lions far from it. Besides two projected standouts out all season so far, ace LB Dominic DeLuca is iffy. The Illini's pass defense is for real -- no TD throws allowed, 10 picks, 10 sacks. Forget Penn State's 56-0 win over Kent State, perhaps the FBS' sorriest team. A seven-point escape against Bowling Green a week before is cause for concern.

Another situation where I don't expect the team to win, but there's a little too much value to pass up on it. The Illinois offense might just be one of the better offenses in the Big Ten.

Luke Altmyer threw four interceptions in last year's meeting and it still took the Nittany Lions a long time to pull away and win by 17. I don't know that the Illini pull off another road upset, but this spread is underestimating the Illinois offense.

Illinois has been underrated for much of the season and continues to be underrated with this spread. The emergence of the Fighting Illini's passing attack with Luke Altmyer will allow the underdog to keep pace with the high-powered Penn State offense.

Thus far, Penn State is giving up an average of 13.0 points per game and Illinois even less at 12.5 PPG. The last time these two teams played in State College, in 2022, the final score was 20-18 in NINE overtimes. Both teams are allowing under 300 yards per game. I'd be surprised if either team far exceeded that this week. Penn State 26, Illinois 14.