Michigan has been home underdogs in two of the last three weeks, which is kind of wild honestly. This number keeps getting bet down, and I can't really figure out why. USC has blown me away with its defensive turnaround this season, and I believe they still have the talent to resemble a typical Lincoln Riley offense. Alex Orji could be an X-factor, but USC has the speed on defense to contain him. The Trojans have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, and I think it'll show. All due respect to Michigan, but I have USC winning by 10+ here.

This is not your grandmother's Michigan team. Nor it is last year's, which won the CFP title. The Wolverines already have switched QBs, with replacement Alex Orji having thrown all of seven passes in three college seasons. The reborn USC defense should handle him with ease. For the Trojans, offense is a given, and it could feast on the Wolves' vulnerable pass D. A bye week makes the Trojans fresh, and their Big Ten debut raises the excitement level.

This line opened at -6.5 earlier in the week, but the number has dropped to a point that makes USC attractive. The Wolverines remain a mess offensively and on Saturday will start Alex Orji, who was beaten out by Davis Warren prior to the season. I like the Trojans improved defense to keep Michigan bottled up. Meanwhile, USC will have the best quarterback on the field in Miller Moss, who already has been clutch this season in beating LSU. Also, the Trojans had an off week last week, giving them an extra seven days to prepare for this. Give me USC.

With the change to Alex Orji at QB, Michigan should be more run-heavy than usual, and look to control the game. As good as USC has looked, this is the first time Miller Moss has faced a good defense in a hostile environment, so I expect the Trojans offense to have trouble too.

With how the offense has looked so far this season, it is save to say that the Trojans should be able to find points against Michigan. Defensively, look for the Trojans to pester Michigan QB Alex Orji throughout the ball game, keeping their offense searching for answers.

I just don't trust the Wolverines to be able to score more than twice. Then again, picking the under in a Lincoln Riley-coached game, especially in the 40s, is a very scary proposition. But the Trojans' defense looks to be vastly improved under new coordinator D'Anton Lynn and I don't see Michigan scoring more than two touchdowns, nor giving up more than four. USC 23, Michigan 17.