I would normally be hesitant to take a favorite with a big spread and a low total, but this bowl season has been far from normal. Tulane has put a nice season together, but they will be without their starting QB, two wide receivers (including Chris Brazzel) and a few key players on the defensive side of the ball. The Hokies are relatively intact outside of a few players (including two in the secondary). I trust the Hokies will utilize their run game plus some short area passes to put up some points in this one and I think the Tulane offense will be largely stagnant.

This matchup has been leaning Under all along. Tulane has bid a premature goodbye to standout QB Michael Pratt, as well as two productive WRs and a TE. (The impact of head coach Willie Fritz fleeing for another job is harder to apply on the total, but the Green Wave were prolific scores under him.) The lone Virginia Tech opt-out is a skill position player, TE Dae’Quan Wright. Now mix in weather, with rains anticipated all day in Annapolis, Md. The number has shrunk about three points but not enough to shake the confidence of Under players.

It’d be one thing to late double-digits in a massive mismatch, but it is an entirely different thing to lay double-digits with a team that is average-at-best. That’s why it’s smart to take the Green Wave here. Sure, the coaching switch might play a small part, but Tulane’s offensive line is more than enough to keep things close even without some offensive skill position firepower. The Hokies don’t have a ton to worry about in terms of depth chart attrition, but their upside isn’t big enough to think that this one will be a blowout.