Important "Battle for the Belt" game in the Sun Belt West with Troy up a game on USA and a handful of others. The Jaguars are a weird team -- they crushed Oklahoma State in Stillwater but also lost at home to Central Michigan. QB Carter Bradley was banged up last time out against Louisiana. He should play but if not, this spread/ML would really jump. At less than 100 percent, even less of a chance for USA to pull the road upset. Troy has won 17 of its last past 19 overall and five straight in this series. Trojans RB Kimani Vidal ranks third in the country, averaging 124.3 yards per game. Troy's defense has forced multiple takeaways in four of the last five.

Some Jags backers might try to get you believing that USA was looking forward to this Sun Belt showdown vs. the nearby Trojans and not properly focused on the Ragin' Cajuns last week. Maybe so, but Troy is proving a different beast (along with JMU) in the Belt race, with Jon Sumrall's bunch hitting the accelerator after a slow break from the gate and now with four wins and covers on the spin. The nation's 10th-ranked defense will make sure the Jags don't come within earshot of their recent 50+-points explosions vs. ULM and USM, and no way USA RB La'Damian Webb replicates some of his recent 100+-yard rushing exploits vs. the Sumrall D allowing only 2.9 ypc. Play Troy

South Alabama is in a four-way tie for 2nd place one-game behind Troy. South Alabama has home revenge from a 10-6 loss last year. I expect USA QB Carter Bradley to play after leaving last week's game with 16 seconds remaining for a knee injury. Bradley was at the press conference on Monday with no knee sports and no limp. My model has South Alabama pulling the upset in the Battle for the Belt.