This boils down to a significant difference in QBs. For New Mexico State, Diego Pavia is a throwing/running multitalent, with 14 TD tosses and a team-leading 431 rushing yards. UTEP's likely starter, Cade McConnell, was a fourth-stringer earlier this season. He has played decently in a brief stint as starter but is no Pavia. The Miners are saddled with being poor at rushing and rush prevention. If the Aggies elect to pass, they can strike quickly, with a No. 8 ranking for explosiveness in the air. Their recent ATS run of 11-3 seals the deal.

Half unit as I don't have a strong opinion here, but not quite sure New Mexico State should be favored on the road (maybe very slightly, although our model has UTEP by 2), so now that one of our books has 3.5 instead of 3 we'll back the home Miners. For some reason, they host the Aggies for a second straight season (conference foes usually rotate hosting) and won by a TD in 2022.

In this "Battle of I-10", the locals have something to do other than hit Sunland Park for the simulcast racing card now that the Aggies are on course for their second straight bowl and UTEP is stirring after a rare road win last week (at FIU). The Miners might again be minus QB Gavin Hardison, who missed the FIU win with a bad elbow, though he hadn't been doing much (5 TDP vs. 7 picks), and backup Cade McConnell seems serviceable in relief. But it's the scorelines that catch our eyes, with NMSU "under" 4 of its last 5 this season and the Miners "under" 5-2. Aggies games tend to to look more like brawls, and expect same tonight at Sun Bowl.