Ole Miss comes off their loss to the Crimson Tide. LSU got caught looking ahead to his game since they did not cover last week against Arkansas. In the last 10 meetings between these two, the home team is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS.

Opened at 62.5 -- usually we see big numbers like that go down. Ole Miss managed only 10 points last week at Alabama. I'm certainly not saying LSU's defense is that good. Defensively, the Rebs haven't allowed more than 24 yet. I'm fairly sure LSU tops that but not into the 40s where this likely loses. Ole Miss has at least 6.0 tackles for loss in each of its first four games and at least 4.0 sacks in three of four contests. We need a few of those to force LSU into third-and-longs and end drives. The SL Model only has 51 points scored. That would be shocking.

Early-week betting signals were conflicting, but significant money started coming in on Ole Miss Wednesday. LSU is overvalued after beating Grambling and a bad Mississippi State team and not covering vs. Arkansas and FSU. The Rebs’ run game has been underwhelming, but when Quinshon Judkins is 100% healthy (and he’s hinted at this), these offenses can match each other blow-for-blow. The mismatch is LSU’s defense, which ranks #107 nationally with a 43.4% success rate. They’re also below-average in explosive plays allowed, while giving up 4.6 points per scoring opportunity. That’s an obvious problem vs. Lane Kiffin's offense. Models make Ole Miss a 3-point home favorite, or a virtual coin flip on a neutral field. I’ll take the points and a party in the Grove.

LSU is doing this year exactly what it did the previous season under Brian Kelly. A first game loss to Florida State and then proceed to get better and better by the week. Meanwhile Ole Miss just laid an egg in a game to Alabama that meant way, way more than just another on the schedule. The Tigers are better offensively, defensively and are feeling it. Ole Miss is kicking players off the team and I don't trust where that locker room is at. If things go south early LSU might give them a reason to shut it down mentally and call it a night. If it's a tight game, we could be happy we took the ML instead of the spread.

LSU has the longest over streak in the country at eight games. Ole Miss has a streak of seven straight against ranked teams which have hit the under line. In those Rebels games, the final scores combined end up around 45 total points. We saw last week's game in Tuscaloosa end up with a total of 34. This one will be higher scoring but won't hit this monster line. LSU wins, 34-28.

LSU catches Ole Miss at a great time on the schedule, coming off of a tough loss to Alabama. Now, factor in the Tigers have the best QB in the conference and their offense has shown the ability to score often. Plus, with EDGE/LB Harold Perkins getting after the QB, their defense always the element of the big play as well.