As we have seen through three weeks, this is not your 2022 TCU team; however, it still boasts plenty of talent and an advanced scheme under coach Sonny Dykes. Colorado going shot-for-shot with TCU in Week 1 with an entire offseason to prepare does not necessarily turn me off from backing the Horned Frogs in this spot. This may not be as high scoring as the total suggests, but even if it's shot for shot, I like TCU to get the last one. With the line under a full seven, I'll throw a bit on the Frogs in the early slate.

Thus far TCU has been tough for oddsmakers to get an accurate number on. They were defeated by Colorado as steep favorites, and last week blew out Houston on the road as touchdown favorites. That’s created ATS value in a home rivalry game against SMU. Expect the Mustangs to put forth a solid effort to keep within the touchdown spread. Take SMU

Betting with power ratings is a constant labor of love upgrading and adjusting. I bet against TCU last week, fading them for Houston feeling the Horned Frogs were overrated from last year. TCU hammered Houston, who dropped while TCU went up. Sonny Dykes has gotten the most out of this team since being hired by TCU. My model has the Horned Frogs by 13.

It's looking more and more like TCU walked into a perfect storm buzzsaw to start the season against Colorado in the 45-42 loss. Since then the TCU defense has given up not a single offensive touchdown to opponents and the Horned Frogs as a whole have compiled 77 total points. TCU is averaging 39.6 PPG and the defense is flying around now as well. And we get them at home? Yep, give me TCU.

After giving up touchdown after touchdown in their season opener vs. Colorado, it looked like TCU's defense would be an auto fade each week. Yet in two games since then, they've surrendered zero offensive touchdowns vs. Nicholls and at Houston. SMU held mighty Oklahoma to only 28 points two weeks ago, which is an accomplishment considering the Sooners scored 73 and 66 points in their other two games. This won't be the 42-34 result from 2022. TCU wins, 34-20.