Odd to see a team that once was on the fringes of contention for a playoff berth on the receiving end of the biggest spot so far in the bowl season. Much has been made of opt-outs by UNC defenders, but the unit stunk all season. How worse could it get? With Drake Maye at QB, the Tar Heels can hang in a shootout, which is projected. Bottom line: No Power Five bowl participant should be starting a game with nearly two touchdowns ATS. Veteran UNC coach Mack Brown's bowl record is 14-10 straight-up, so he is not lacking for preparation.

On the surface, this game SCREAMS shootout. It will be one, but not necessarily as much of one as the point total suggests. The Under has hit in four of North Carolina's last five games and three of Oregon's last four. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye has been dealing with some rumors that he could leave for greener pastures, and Ducks' quarterback Bo Nix isn't 100% after dealing with a late-season injury.

Holiday Bowl from San Diego. Oregon should not be this heavily favored (at least I don't think) against a Tar Heels team with one of the nation's top QBs in Drake Maye -- the early favorite as the top overall pick in the 2024 draft. He did lose star wideout Josh Downs to an opt out but the Ducks lost a lot more, especially on defense. Both teams lost their offensive coordinator to another school. I'm pretty confident the Heels can stay within 14 at worst.