Troy started the season slowly but won its last 10 games and covered its last eight. The Trojans finished 11-2 and 10-3 ATS. And they finished the season strong, scoring 48 and 45 points in their last two games. Their last three games went way Over the total. UTSA can’t stop anyone, and no one can stop the Roadrunners. UTSA's average score is 38-26. Over is the top play.

Rule of thumb in bowls: When a top-notch offense goes against a top-notch defense, go with the O. UTSA's offense is the 12th most prolific in FBS. QB Frank Harris ranks sixth among passers, while WR Zakhari Franklin has amassed 14 TD receptions. Troy cannot count on turnovers; Harris has thrown a single pick in the past five outings. The Trojans' allowance of 17.5 ppg, eighth best in FBS, is about to take a hit.

Cure Bowl from Orlando. This might be the best bowl game not involving a Power 5 school and is in fact the only bowl game overall featuring two teams that won conference championships and also teams on 10-game win streaks. UTSA has one of the nation's best offenses and Troy one of its best defenses. I have to take the team with the better QB and that's clearly the Roadrunners with Frank Harris. Motivation won't be a problem as UTSA has never won a bowl game. It is 13-5 ATS in its past 18 vs. teams with a winning record.