The Badgers are mired in a major down year by their standards. Even so, they have already suffered two uncharacteristic home losses, and the last one against Illinois cost Paul Chryst his job. They have bounced back a little, with a solid win over Northwestern before falling to Michigan State in OT last week. Veteran-laden Purdue has looked solid all year, but nearly slipped up against Nebraska last week. There is value in this near pick'em line for Wisconsin to grind out a win and work its way out of last place in the Big Ten West.

Purdue is the better team and the homefield advantage Wisconsin is getting with this line is too much. The Badgers are only 2-2 at home this season and 7-4 since the start of last season. That includes a record of 5-6 ATS and they've been favored in all 11. Purdue's offense is built to give this Wisconsin defense problems. The Boilermakers are the play.

This will be the Boilermakers' third road game in four weeks. They accumulated over 600 total yards in last week's victory. Teams in this role have been a great play to fade in their next game. Wisconsin brings in the better net yards per play, better offensive line and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Purdue is 3-8 ATS versus losing teams of late. Take the home team to get back to .500 before its bye week.

Styles make fights, and Purdue's offense -- led by last week's Big Ten Co-Offensive Player of the Week Aidan O'Connell under center -- will dictate the style of this one. O'Connell threw for 391 yards and four touchdowns, led his team in three of their four wins during the current four-game winning streak, and has the Boilermakers into contention in the Big Ten West. Meanwhile, Michigan State had three touchdown passes last week against the Badgers, and they have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four matchups.