This seems like an awfully big number. The Razorbacks may have one of the poorest pass defenses in the country (126th in passing yards allowed), but I'm not sure the young Crimson Tide receivers are at a point to take advantage of that. (They weren't three weeks ago against Texas.) I also like Drew Sanders & Co. to get pressure on Bryce Young. On the other side of the ball, KJ Jefferson, Raheim (Rocket) Sanders and Dominique Johnson have the ability to play keep away from the Alabama offense and keep this game close. I'm on the Hogs.

There has been a troubling trend for Alabama when it comes to performance in true road games. The Crimson Tide have been favored by double digits in all five of its true road games since the start of 2021, and failed to cover the spread in four of those games. Last year it was beating Florida by two as a 14-point favorite, losing to Texas A&M as an 18-point favorite and then a quadruple-overtime, two-point win at Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The trend continued with its one-point win at Texas, and I think it continues against a quality Arkansas team that proved last season it could hand with the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has been struggling in road games since the start of last season, failing to cover in five of six. The long cover was a 40-point win over Mississippi State. The others were last season's loss to Texas A&M and four wins by a field goal or less. Alabama was favored by an average of 18.5 points in those games. That worrying trend combined with Alabama's lack of an explosive passing attack this season makes asking it to cover 17 against Arkansas difficult.