The initial surge of cash on the chalk when this number opened at -13.5 should prove to be an accurate steam. I didn't want anything to do with 17.5 or higher, but now that this has tucked back inside the key number of 17 at most outlets, a window of value has reopened on the Buckeyes. They learned the hard way from Oregon last year that they can't expect to just show up and win in the Horseshoe. Heisman candidate C.J. Stroud still has plenty to work with and they should be prepared. Notre Dame will be fine, but starting a new era with a QB making his first start amid 100,000 hostile fans against a top-three opponent is less than ideal. Look for the Buckeyes to pull away comfortably.

How does Notre Dame keep pace? That's the question I ask myself as I break this game down. Ohio State is an offense that's going to score 40 points per game this season, and opponents have to figure out a way to score more. I don't think Notre Dame can. Not with a new QB and not without a game-breaking receiver on the exterior. Maybe Ohio State can lend them one of the 50 it has?

Notre Dame could close as the biggest AP Top 5 underdog this century; the previous high was actually the Irish +18.5 against Alabama in the Rose Bowl semifinal after the 2020 season, and Notre Dame stayed within 17 points there. I think the same happens Saturday even though Ohio State is going to be wicked good offensively. The Irish should be able to run the ball and complete short passes to stud tight end Michael Mayer to get first downs and chew clock.