It's tough to back a road favorite in Week 1, especially when that team ended the prior season in such rough fashion, but Penn State is the right side. Purdue is attempting to replace its top playmakers on both sides of the ball, as well as a key assistant, while PSU is largely returning a team that was on the wrong side of a number of 50/50 results a year ago. The public wants to take Purdue – one of the most hyped underdogs this offseason – and the line here should tell you something. I like this better at -3 (-110 or even -115) if you can get it, but I was too late here to lock up that number.

I think the wrong team is favored. Penn State won its first five games last season but only two of its final eight. Its offense was lackluster under first-year coordinator Mike Yurcich, and despite having senior QB Sean Clifford back, I don’t see his protection being much better as only two offensive linemen return. Just 10 starters in total are back for the Nittany Lions, and the kicker isn't one of them. Purdue has a huge edge at quarterback, tight end and kicker. The Boilermakers have 16 starters returning from a 9-4 squad. Take Purdue and the points.

I don't want to dismiss Purdue's accomplishments last season, but I believe it overperformed slightly and I'm skeptical it will be able to maintain those results considering how much its lost. Meanwhile, Penn State is being underrated in the market because of mediocre results the last couple of seasons, but it's the far more talented team on both sides of the ball.

The Nittany Lions were the second best Under team last season with the Under cashing in 10 of their 13 games. Their average game had just 42.3 points, fifth lowest in FBS. The Nittany Lions slow down the game and are very comfortable playing in low scoring games. The Boilermakers started last season with six straight Unders. Their offense wasn't good until Week 9 last season. Expect the same thing to happen this season with their offensive struggles. Under is the play.