UCF coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. He is 21-11 ATS in his career when seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points.

There are a billion different ways this game can go, but when it comes to bowl season, motivation is always a huge factor. Florida is ready to move on to 2022 with new coach Billy Napier, and starting QB Emory Jones plans to transfer after this game. Then there's UCF, which has nothing to lose and everything to gain by knocking off one of the state's Power Five programs. Gus Malzahn loves winning games he isn't supposed to, so give me the Knights.

The Gators fired Dan Mullen and interim coach Greg Knox has already been notified he won’t be back as some of the assistants will remain in new head coach Billy Napier’s staff. Florida is expected to have several key players jump into the transfer portal and QB Anthony Richardson is hurt and expected to miss the game. The Gators failed to cover their last six games. UCF won five of its last six and should have a motivational edge. Take the points.