I picked Missouri +3.5 last week, but there's been a lot of injury news about the Tigers that has come out since, and the line now sits at Mizzou +6.5. While I don't hate that play, I'm a bigger fan of the Over now that the total has dropped to 54. Missouri's defense is missing key players and has been terrible against the run all season. Army's defense has struggled against bigger Power Five teams that provide matchup problems. Both offenses should have success.

Armed Forces Bowl -- Wish I had grabbed this two weeks ago! The spread jumped this morning because Missouri ruled outs by far its best offensive player in running back Tyler Badie, a first-team All-SEC selection, second-team All-American and Doak Walker Award finalist. He had accounted for nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs. In addition, the Tigers are without a handful of other starters due to injury/transfer and giving a freshman his first start at QB. This doesn't feel like a team that wants to be playing this game. You know Army will play hard and that school doesn't have opt outs.

Conventional wisdom holds that, with more practice time to gameplan for Army’s triple-option offense before bowls, defenses are better prepared than in the regular season. Well, the Over has carried in the Black Knights’ last four bowls. They tallied a memorable 70 points against Houston and, in other wins under coach Jeff Monken, rang up 42 and 38. The Tigers ranked dead-last in rushing defense in the SEC. Even if they slow Army down, can they score? RB Tyler Badie, who accounted for 74.8 percent of Mizzou’s rushing yards and ranked No. 3 in the FBS, will be held out.

I'm not trying to overthink this one. Yes, there's a chance that Missouri has no interest in playing this game against a service academy running an option offense, but this is still an SEC team getting points against Army. I love Army. I love the option. But, again, it's an SEC team getting points against a service academy. Even if I lose I'm right.