Michael Penix, Jr. looks to be out for Indiana, which was the last bit of news I needed to side with Michigan State here in a road spot. The Spartans remain underrated this season, and while they are unlikely to be one of the top teams in the nation at year's end, they bring in a far better offense behind running back Kenneth Walker III. Michigan is 4-1 ATS with three road covers already, while Indiana is 0-4 ATS.

Michigan State has had one of the most explosive offenses in the country this season, but I think this Indiana defense matches up pretty well against it. It reminds me of State's game against Nebraska when the Huskers were able to limit Kenneth Walker, and the Spartans offense struggled to move the ball otherwise. This strikes me as a 24-21 game more than it does a 27-24 game, so the Under is a solid bet.

I'm going to chicken out here a bit and take the moneyline at least under -200. Sparty should win, especially if the Hoosiers don't have starting QB Michael Penix Jr., but as a MSU fan I worry a tad about the Spartans looking ahead to Michigan and the fact Indiana is off a bye week and getting some other banged-up guys back. A 3-point Michigan State win wouldn't surprise, but I'm not taking Indiana and the points, either.

This line feels like oddsmakers have not caught up to the Spartans yet. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS this season. The one time the Spartans failed to cover came against Nebraska, which is well suited to play against teams like MSU. Indiana will be facing its fourth ranked opponent of the season and has yet to get within two touchdowns. The Hoosiers are also 0-4 ATS. Spartans should be headed for a double-digit win.

As long as Kenneth Walker is on the field for the Spartans, their offense will have more than enough firepower to win games. Defensively they are both stingy and consistent. Meanwhile the Hoosiers haven't been consistent this season, and I think that inconsistency will be what ends up costing them in this game against a red-hot Michigan State squad.