I honestly wasn't going to play this game on the Gators as I worried it might be the "Last Stand" for embattled LSU coach Ed Orgeron and I frankly think Florida is overrated a bit, but it has gotten to the point where the Tigers are so battered by key injuries that I can't not back UF even in Baton Rouge -- the crowd won't be nearly as much of a factor with the 11 am local kickoff, which is incredibly unusual. Defensively, LSU will be without its two best edge rushers and two best cornerbacks as well as best WR on offense. Florida should be motivated to repay last year's shocking home loss and projected first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam will return this week after missing the last three games with a knee injury.

Things could hardly be going worse for LSU. Their top receiver, Kayshon Boutee, is out. He joins both of the Tigers' star cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Hicks on the sidelines. Hicks was declared out for the season this week. Coach Ed Orgeron's seat is getting hotter by the hour. Florida is catching LSU at a good time and is good enough to take full advantage.

LSU is down wide receiver Kayshon Boutte and has pretty much given up trying to run the football. What is there to suggest that the Tigers will mount a challenge to a Florida defense that has been solid all year? Nothing. Sure, the absence of LSU cornerbacks Eli Ricks and Derek Stingley Jr. might suggest that Florida’s offense will have a field day. But why would coach Dan Mullen do that when he doesn’t have to -- especially on the road? That doesn’t make any sense.

Florida caught its first break when this matchup was scheduled for a local kickoff time of 11 a.m. — the ideal time to face LSU and its rabid fans. A flood of Tigers’ injuries has further enhanced Florida’s chances. LSU WR Kayshon Boutte (leg), the FBS co-leader in touchdown catches and lockdown CB Elias Ricks (shoulder) both are out. The Tigers' secondary has been blitzed by injuries. The Gators bounced back from a loss at unbeaten Kentucky to shut out Vanderbilt, lifting them to 3-1 ATS in their last four outings.

There's a storm brewing for each team in this game and they're going in two different directions. Even after Florida's 42-0 win over Vanderbilt last weekend, Dan Mullen wasn't particularly pleased and made sure everyone knew his Gators need to play better in a hurry. On the other side, LSU's season has been in a tailspin...and that was before the news that studs Kayshon Boutte and Eli Ricks would be out for the season. 10.5 is a dangerous number in a hostile environment, but it will only be hostile until Florida sucks the energy right out of it...and don't expect Dan Mullen to stop pouring it on either, remember the shoe game last season? Payback is coming.