An argument could certainly be made that the wrong team is favored here -- the SportsLine Projection Model has Memphis winning by three, while the ESPN SP+ has the Tigers winning by a point. Memphis leads the nation in total offense and is among the rushing leaders, while MSU is meh defensively. In addition, the Tigers have won 16 straight games at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium – the fourth-best streak among FBS teams in the nation. Maybe Memphis loses, but I can't see it being by more than a field goal so at worst we push. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their past five as favorites.

This will be Mississippi State's first road game of the season, as it tries to stop the No. 1 offense in the nation. This seems like a flat spot to me. The Bulldogs play LSU at home next week. The Tigers should have the advantage on special teams. Bulldogs P Tucker Day is averaging 38.5 yards per punt, which ranks in the bottom-third in the nation. Memphis has a history of upsetting SEC foes at home. Expect the Tigers to do it again.