Triple-digit heat awaits these teams. Since it’s almost a given that the host side will win easily, a probable scenario is Fresno building a comfy lead and running clock to shorten the game as much as possible in deference to the weather. Also, to switch gears to the Bulldogs’ next game against Oregon. UConn, which took 2020 off, was dreadful defensively before then, so the Huskies’ D cannot be counted on to contribute to an Under. However, the equally insipid offense can help tamp down the final score. In its latest season two years ago, UConn ranked 120th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 18.9 points. No revival is likely during a cross-country trip into challenging conditions.

The Huskies sat out the entire 2020 season, so we know they have fresh legs. OK, seriously, this pick is more about Fresno State than anything. The Bulldogs were 3-3 last year but the three wins came against teams that went a combined 2-14, and Fresno has Oregon looming on the schedule. I expect the Bulldogs to take a lead and cruise in the second half, allowing UConn to stick around.

This is a lot of points to lay, but I think the number is still short and maybe not accounting for a home field that has Connecticut making its longest trip of the season. This is the first opener for the Huskies since 2019. They have lots of experience returning from teams that went 3-21 in 2018-19. They might be rated too high. I believe Fresno State, with its running and passing games and most of their starters returning, buries the Huskies. Fresno State to cover.