ARMED FORCES BOWL -- Weather will be a major factor in Fort Worth with a high of just 40 and 100 percent chance of rain, perhaps an inch. That would seem to benefit the bigger, more talented Bulldogs. I might have taken Tulsa here if not for the opt-out of superstar linebacker Zaven Collins. The Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner and AAC Defensive Player of the Year was arguably the most important defender to his team in the country this year. Two of his interceptions clinched Tulsa wins. Also, I'm questioning if the AAC was really any good this season as that league is 1-3 SU and ATS in bowls so far, with UCF, Tulane and Houston each losing by double digits.

ARMED FORCES BOWL -- An edge in experience, motivation and weather gives the nod to Tulsa. Mississippi State is expected to send out 26 first-year starters, equaling the most for an FBS team this season. Tulsa brings 62 native Texans back to their home state, which assures they will play inspired football. Almost-certain rain and stiff winds will impede the Bulldogs’ pass-heavy offense more than the Golden Hurricane's balanced attack. Mississippi State coach Mike Leach is 2-8 ATS in bowls at previous stops. Tulsa enters with a 4-0 ATS regular-season streak. The Golden Hurricane will miss opting-out LB Zaven Collins, but he was not solely responsible for their 22nd-ranked pass defense efficiency rating.

ARMED FORCES BOWL -- Trends matter, and trends suggest that the Under will be a slam dunk in this one. It has hit in seven of Mississippi State's 10 games and five of Tulsa's eight. As stated above, I don't think this one will be a shootout and one or two offensive plays could be what decide it. It'll be a slugfest (or a pillow fight on Mississippi State's side).

ARMED FORCES BOWL -- The Golden Hurricane have one of the most stifling defenses in the country that is much more than "just" Zaven Collins. Sure, Collins is incredible. But his absence won't make a drastic difference against a Mississippi State offense that has been hit-or-miss this season. It'll come down to one or two key plays on offense, and I'm more confident in Tulsa's ability to make that happen.