My model says FIU covers 70 percent of the time and projects the Panthers to win 24-22, so you're getting value at this number. Western Kentucky averages just 14.7 points per game; only three teams are worst. The Hilltoppers just don't score enough to be this big of a favorite. Take FIU.

This might be the definition of insanity: Siding with a team whose offense is ineffective while giving a touchdown. However, WKU’s defense is solid enough that it can create scores or gift the offense with short fields. The Panthers, whose season has been disrupted by roster shrinkage and five canceled or postponed games, are getting worse with each outing. The Hilltoppers allowed 10 points or fewer in three of their last four outings. (The other was against mighty BYU).