I know the Vols will get it figured out and be a really good team at some point this season, but -6.5 is giving a little too much respect against a strong Kentucky team. I make Tennessee just -2.5 in my simulations as I don't have very strong ratings on Jarrett Guarantano against this Kentucky defense. Take the points.

The best thing any bettor can do is learn from their mistakes, and I learned from one last week. What I learned is that I'm never going to trust Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano against a good defense again. That kid is just too fast and loose with the football. So, at home against a good Kentucky defense, laying nearly a touchdown, I'm going with the Wildcats.

Kentucky has covered just once in its last eight meetings with Tennessee and just once in the last six games at Knoxville. Kentucky has an incredible defense that was huge in its 24-2 win against Miss State and the Wildcats will be tough Saturday. But I like the bounce-back spot for the Vols after a terrible second half against Georgia last week. Vols win and cover with a balanced attack.