MUSIC CITY BOWL -- This is a good spot for Louisville, which gets a quasi home game with the venue about a three-hour drive from its campus. First-year coach Scott Satterfield is ahead of schedule on what was believed to be a long-term rebuilding project. He won seven games and is also 3-0 in bowls. The Bulldogs got a much-needed win in the Egg Bowl, but it seems coach Joe Moorhead isn't embraced by the program's supporters. What's more, they could be dealing with a distraction after starting quarterback Garrett Shrader was injured in a fight with a teammate last week.

MUSIC CITY BOWL -- The 11th-hour switch from QB Garrett Shrader to Tommy Stevens is no deal-breaker for Mississippi State. Stevens is a veteran who began the season in the role. Each team loses a standout who opted for the NFL Draft, but pro-to-be RB Kylin Hill elected to play, which boosts the Bulldogs’ morale. He will pound away at Louisville's suspect rushing defense. The Bulldogs are 3-1 since the return of three key players who were suspended for the previous eight contests.

MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Mississippi State appeared to be the stronger team coming into this one. But with their starting QB missing the game because of a fight with a teammate, the Bulldogs have too much smoke around them for me to feel comfortable picking them. Louisville has played inspired ball all season.

MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Yeah, this total is just too high. Mississippi State's defense had problems during the regular season, but that was due to suspensions and injuries. The unit comes into this game with everybody available. As for Louisville, its defense has been a problem at times, but this Mississippi State offense isn't strong enough to exploit it. At least, not as often as this total suggests it will.

MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Bulldogs running back Kylin Hill will play after declaring for the draft, but will it be more of a curtain call? Probably. Because of that, the Bulldogs will play a little sloppy on offense even though Louisville's defense has been shaky this year. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs defense gave up just 22.3 points per game in November. This won't touch 60 points.