HAWAII BOWL -- Honolulu could be less than a paradise during the game, with rain and strong winds in the forecast. That would favor BYU because Hawaii leans heavily on the pass; QB Cole McDonald ranks fifth nationally in yardage. He did tail off late in the season, while the Cougars have allowed only one opponent to eclipse 30 points scored. The Rainbows’ home-field edge in the bowl has been marginal. They are 4-4 straight-up as hosts. Play on the Cougars.

HAWAII BOWL -- First of all, I'm grateful that this game is back on Christmas Eve where it belongs. Secondly, I'm grateful that Hawaii is at home for this game because I love fading Hawaii at home. The Warriors are 13-26-1 ATS at home since 2014, including a mark of 6-11 ATS as home dogs. This is a team that has turned the ball over 30 times in 14 games and it's facing a BYU team that has shown an ability to slow down pass-heavy offenses like Hawaii's already this season.

HAWAII BOWL -- This is a very intriguing game, one that also should be very entertaining as Hawaii QB Cole McDonald and BYU QB Zach Wilson both are very good players with a flair for the dramatic. Defensively, it's all about trust. That's where the teams differ. Hawaii has been Jekyll-and-Hyde this year, and because of that, I have trouble trusting it against the Cougars.

HAWAII BOWL -- My model loves the Cougars in this matchup, as they're winning on average by about a touchdown and covering more than 60 percent of simulations. BYU trounced Hawaii 49-23 last season and is 23-8 all-time versus the Rainbow Warriors. Lay the small number.