This line is a bit strange to me, and usually when you see a strange line, it is advisable to stay away. But despite some wet and windy conditions in Minnesota on Saturday, this is a team that has been nails at home all season, while Wisconsin has struggled on the road. The Badgers defense has allowed 84 points in its last three games after giving up just 29 points in the prior six. It's not going to be much easier to stop the Golden Gophers, which posted 38 at Northwestern after a tough loss at Iowa. Love that I'm getting the hook. Also going to sprinkle Minnesota straight up.

The Golden Gophers are 10-1 straight up (8-3 ATS) and have plenty of confidence at home after beating Penn State a couple of weeks ago. Minnesota can also use the confidence that it finally beat Wisconsin last year after losing 14 straight. P.J. Fleck has his team playing at a different level with more speed than we've seen from Minnesota in a long time. Wide receivers Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman are both difference makers, plus senior running back Rodney Smith has over 1,000 yards. I have Tanner Morgan ranked the 10th best QB over the last eight weeks. Wisconsin QB Jack Coan is ranked No. 26, however his team is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games.

This matchup was pointing toward a moderate score before the weather forecast (rain or snow, with gusty winds) affirmed it. Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor will not find the holes to which he is accustomed. The teams rank third (Badgers) and fourth (Gophers) in the Big Ten in total defense. Only Rutgers has thrown fewer passes than this pair, so it’s ground game versus ground game in conditions that will discourage passing. Take the Under.

Like many games throughout the country this Saturday, this one will feature a lot of wind. Still, I don't see a lot of value in the Under. What I do see happening is Minnesota's offense having a more difficult time with the wind than Wisconsin. Minnesota's offense is built around taking big shots down the field in the passing game, and high winds will impact their ability to do so. As will a Wisconsin defense that ranks 5th nationally in sack rate.