Everybody in the world can tell you about Tom Herman's record ATS as an underdog, but I'm interested in the Unders, dog. Since Herman came to Texas, the Under has gone 24-11 in Texas' Big 12 games. It's also 11-6 when Texas is on the road. On the other side, the Under has gone 15-10 in Baylor's conference games under Matt Rhule.

Baylor and Texas are coming off of tough losses last week, but the Bears' loss was more shocking. They were dominating and up 28-3 before falling 34-31 to Oklahoma. Baylor is strong in the secondary and matches up well across the board. The Bears will make things tough for Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns passing attack.

The tough-luck Longhorns saw their Big 12 title game hopes fizzle in the form of a last-second loss to Iowa State. Conversely, Baylor needs just one win its final two -- and Kansas is the season-ending insurance policy if Saturday's game doesn't work out -- in order to get a likely rematch with Oklahoma. Even so, the epic meltdown that caused the Bears to lose their undefeated season can't come without a residual hangover, even for this well-coached team. Texas as an underdog with some key numbers in your pocket is the way to go.