The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and get another prime Tom Herman underdog spot as they are +10 dogs in Dallas. Jalen Hurts upside is the reason this line isn't -7 where my model has it. I like Ehlinger to keep Texas within the number. Take the points.

Normally for rivalry games you want to throw the records and -- for the most part -- logic out of the window. However, in this game the Longhorns come into the Cotton Bowl with a beat-up backfield that doesn't look to be 100 percent. That's a troubling sign. Plus, the Texas secondary is also banged up -- not what you want to hear when you're facing the high-flying Sooners' aerial attack. Take Oklahoma.

The Sooners' offensive line struggled mightily last week against Kansas -- which generated a ton of pressure bringing just four. Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando is one of the best in the business and will expose an overrated Sooners' OL. Texas will also play keep away with quarterback Sam Ehlinger's work on the ground and through the air. Take those points, but you won't need them because the Longhorns will win this one outright.

The Red River Showdown in neutral territory has drawn a Texas-size line, even though the Longhorns have covered in six of the last seven clashes. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger might be a half-notch below counterpart, Jalen Hurts, but is still All-America worthy. Oklahoma’s OTs are ailing, so the offense might not be operating on all cylinders. If the Showdown evolves into a shootout, Ehlinger has the goods and the supporting cast to keep pace.

I have two philosophies when it comes to this game: One is to never bet against Texas coach Tom Herman as an underdog. The other is to take the dog in a rivalry game. I'm going against both of those philosophies here. Simply put, I just don't think Texas can keep pace with the Sooners unless Oklahoma messes up. To this point, the Sooners haven't given me a reason to believe they will. Lay the points with Oklahoma.