There's been a lot of support for UCLA in this one, but the Bearcats have the value at this number. They return a solid core from last year's breakout 11-win team, including seven starters from the AAC's top defense. UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled in his collegiate debut last year against the Bearcats. He and a long cast of now-season Bruins should be improved and headed toward a winning season, but look for Cincinnati to have the edge again Thursday night.

Last season Cincinnati won 11 games and UCLA won three. One of Cincinnati's wins came against these Bruins in LA, and all of that is contributing to Cincinnati being favored here. I'm just not sure it should be. Advanced metrics showed that the Bearcats' record was better than their actual performance, and I like the Bruins' chances of winning outright, though I'd rather have the points.

These two opened 2018 in Los Angeles; Cincinnati won 26-17 in a defensive battle. Bearcats coach Luke Fickell was the Ohio State defensive coordinator for 11 years before becoming the Cincinnati coach. The Bearcats ran the ball 62 percent of the time last year and return their top four rushing leaders, including QB Desmond Ridder. The defense returns seven starters. UCLA returns their top three rushers and nine starters on defense.

Year Two in the Chip Kelly era for the UCLA Bruins should yield better results, especially offensively. The running game is always prevalent with a Kelly-coached team, and they have a good returning back in Joshua Kelley. Where the Bearcats thrive is defensively. Cincy was stout against the run last year, and figures to be that again in 2019. I also like their ability to attack vertically with sophomore QB Desmond Ridder.

It'll be strength on strength with Bruins running back Joshua Kelley facing off against a loaded Bearcats defense. The X-factor is Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The dual-threat weapon was thrown into action way too early last year, but has had a full season with coach Chip Kelly to learn the system. He'll show that he's the right man for the job, take pressure off Kelley on the ground and make a play or two late to spring the mild upset.

I want to believe UCLA will better than last year's 3-9 team and I want to believe that sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a Las Vegan, will be the reason. Chip Kelly's first season saw him lose more games than he did in four years at Oregon, but he's got 19 starters back and it's part of the reason I have them rated high, only one point less than Cincinnati on a neutral field. However, I know Cincinnati is good. I've already seen it and sophomore QB Desmond Ridder returns with 13 other starters from last season's 11-2 squad which include leading rusher Michael Warren (19 TDs) and the AAC's No. 1 defense that allowed only 17.2 ppg. This Bearcats squad is polished and way ahead of where they were in last season's opener when they beat UCLA at the Rose Bowl, 26-17, as 14-point underdogs. Let's give Cincinnati 4.5-points for home field and suggest Cincinnati should be 5.5 to 6-point favorites. I'm on Cincinnati.