The Rockets are usually in contention for the MAC title, but instead find themselves in an unfamiliar position near the cellar of the West Division. They are coming off a pair of disappointing outings, which includes blowing a 10-point halftime lead last week against Buffalo. Western Michigan is in first place but has played mostly meager competition and has three wins by 11 combined points. The Rockets suddenly need this just to keep their bowl hopes alive, and they should have value as an underdog Thursday.

This spread is off due to the public seeing the records of each team and assuming Western Michigan's a much better team. It isn't. The Broncos are 6-2 but those six wins haven't come against anybody special. While Toledo is 3-4 its losses have come to Miami, Fresno State, Eastern Michigan and Buffalo. Those four are a combined 22-8. The Rockets are better than this line suggests.

Western Michigan hasn't been great against the number this season at 3-5 ATS, but Toledo has been worse at 2-5 ATS. The edge here for WMU is home field coupled with an unstoppable running game that rushes for 220 ypg against the Toledo defense that allows 188 ypg on the ground and gives up 34 ppg. Laying under a TD with WMU is the play.