Penn State on the moneyline offers tremendous value at +160 against Pittsburgh at Hienz Field. Both teams have very talented running backs, but Penn State is the more dynamic team that has the ability to play at any tempo. James Conner is a great player who will get his touches, but he makes Pitt a very one-dimensional team. Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley will lead the Nittany Lions' to a 24-20 victory.

This intra-state matchup boils down to which passing game you can trust. The talented tailbacks, Penn State’s Saquon Barkley and Pitt’s James Conner, will find yardage tough to come by. New Nittany Lions OC Joe Moorhead is a fantastic play-caller who will exploit matchups. Look for Penn State to switch up the tempo, which will frustrate the Panthers. Pitt's offense will be one-dimensional, which is why I'm backing the Nittany Lions.

Each of these Pennsylvania schools looked good in their season openers, so it's tough to gauge which is the better team based solely on those performances. What I do know is they are very close in terms of talent, and Penn State is simply getting too many points here. My simulations show the Nittany Lions covering 69 percent of the time, with a 58 percent shot at pulling off the outright upset.