The rest advantage for VCU and North Carolina, sides with the Tar Heels by three full days since North Carolina’s ACC exit last Thursday. That can be a factor early on for the Tar Heels to build a lead. Yet, VCU has shown their power all season long at adjusting to deficits and using their depth to rally. We saw it throughout Atlantic 10 conference play, and in the championship game against Dayton. Grab VCU plus the points.

Without superstar Caleb Wilson, I'm completely out on North Carolina. VCU has won 16 of 17 games, albeit in a weaker Atlantic 10 Conference, while UNC is 1-4 in their last five away from Chapel Hill. If Wilson was playing, the Tar Heels would be a sneaky pick in The Big Dance. Instead they're an easy fade for me. Rams win outright by more than five points in a low-scoring contest.

This line moved to 1.5 at a couple of books, so now I have to bet it. I'll be honest, I won't be shocked if VCU wins the game, but I make North Carolina -4.5. Think about it this way. Less than a month ago, VCU was +7.5 at St. Louis. Now they are almost pick vs. UNC on a neutral court? That's too much of an overreaction to the Caleb Wilson injury. I don't love this UNC team but I'm a stickler about betting numbers in the NCAA Tournament. I have to bet the Tar Heels at -1.5 (BetMGM).