Troy has proven it can hang with college hoops' big boys. In a remarkable 48-hour stretch, it downed San Diego State in two overtimes, then fell to Southern Cal in three OTs. Every team hit the century mark in scoring. The Trojans wield an impressive plus-seven points differential. Nebraska was the talk of the sport after opening 20-0 straight-up, then regressed over the last dozen games, winning only half. Of the Cornhuskers' six Big Ten victims down the stretch, the highest finisher in league standings was eighth. Most were bottom-feeders. They enter the NCAA Tournament with minimal momentum.

Nebraska has been a big under team all season on the back of a defense that rates in the top 10 nationally and led the Big Ten in defensive efficiency in conference play. Troy plays with one of the 10 slowest tempos in the tournament and while they shoot the three-pointer willingly the Trojans rank 219th nationally making them (33.2%). If Nebraska can force Troy to take a lot of threes and the Trojans miss approximately 65% of those shots the Cornhuskers will secure the school’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Speaking of, there is a vibes aspect of this pick that is eyeing the anxiety of ending the March Madness drought and wondering if maybe Nebraska isn’t a little bit tight down the stretch.