Michigan State is a 16-point favorite over North Dakota State in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament at Buffalo, but my interest is more in the total staying under in this game because of Michigan State's slow pace and strong defense. North Dakota State won the regular-season Summit League title and the Tournament title, finishing 27-7 on the year, covering 18 times. Both teams went under more times than over on the season. The difference in this game will be Michigan State's rebounding, where they're one of the best in the nation. The Spartans also average 68.4 points allowed per game, and I think they're going to play their normal game plan. Just the under.
Michigan State almost certainly will advance, but I don't think the Spartans can cover this massive number. The Bison, winners of the Summit League, feature six players averaging at least 9.2 points and five who shoot 37 percent or better from beyond the arc. North Dakota State lead guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas (14.4 ppg) has started 91 games and will keep the Bison from getting flustered. Look for a hard-fought Spartans' win, but non-cover.
