UMBC owns a 10-game win streak (9-1 ATS) entering its America East semifinal against UMass Lowell. The River Hawks went 0-4 against UMBC and Vermont, the America East's top teams, and in conference play they rank seventh out of nine in field-goal percentage defense (45.9). The Retrievers are playing at home, where they haven't lost since early December. In the most recent matchup with UMass Lowell, the River Hawks had no answer for UMBC's First Team All-America East performer, Jah'Likai King (24 points on 9-of-13 shooting). While it's unlikely the Retrievers beat UMass Lowell by 20-plus for the third straight time, I'd still play this up to -8.5.

This America East semifinal looks like a complete mismatch, considering UMBC won both matchups this season by 23 and 24 points. The Retrievers have won 10 straight games and have covered in nine of them. I think they put this game away in the second half and win once again by double-digits.