North Dakota allowed its instate rival 83 and 96 points in their pair of regular season meetings. Both ended with one-sided margins. For the Fighting Hawks to have a fighting chance, they must play slower than their usual pace (138th). North Dakota State is more patient, with a 176 ranking in possessions per game. Of the teams' four Summit tourney outings, three have landed under this total -- two by a substantial amount. The pressure of the finals in a one-bid league for the NCAAs adds to the probability of an Under.

In the Summit League Championship Game, North Dakota State gets somewhat of a gift here in that their in-state rivals took out St. Thomas, who beat them by 22 in February. Instead, the Bison face in-state rivals North Dakota, who they beat by 17 and 33 points this season. NDSU has the third best offense and the best defense in the conference, and I think they advance to the NCAA Tournament by 15+ points tonight.