Penn State has covered three of its last four home games following Saturday's 71-69 win over Iowa. The Nittany Lions earlier played Illinois and Michigan tough at home, covering in both losses. Penn State also hung tough in Columbus, losing by six as an 11.5-point road dog. Look for another spirited performance by the home team on Senior Night.

Big time strength vs. weakness matchup. Penn State’s interior defense is fundamentally flawed. The Nittany Lions are among the nation’s worst in two-point percentage defense, giving up a staggering 58.6% shooting inside the arc. This bodes well for the Buckeyes, who convert 57.8% of their two-point attempts. Penn State’s inability to defend inside almost guarantees a highly efficient offensive night for Ohio State. With the Buckeyes motivated to bolster their NCAA tournament resume, my model projects them to score at will in the paint and build a lead that should easily surpass the spread. Penn State, with little left to play for, is simply finishing out the season.