Arizona's path to victory here is pace, and Houston has dynamic guard play that has proven this season to heat up and score in spurts when they get in rhythm. If the game is close, then it seems to play to a higher scoring game overall. But even if the second half is spent with Houston holding Arizona at a mid-size margin (5-7 points), the continuous pushing from the Wildcats could drive up the possession count and power Houston's point total to 75 or higher.

I'm jumping on this total early as I anticipate it drops into the upper 130s by Saturday. Houston is surrendering less than 62 points per game this season and has only given up more than 65 points at home one time this year (vs. ASU in a blowout). Arizona is without their second leading scorer Koa Peat and will struggle to generate consistent offense against the elite Cougars defense. While I still believe my Wildcats are a Final Four team, Saturday likely won't be their day for success. I see something like a 73-62 final score and would feel comfortable playing this line down to 137.5.

DK opened Houston -3.5 with other books sitting at 4.5. I'm not sure where the number will go but I'm happy with 3.5. It's up to you if you want to wait for a potentially better line but I don't know if this gets below -3. It's late in the season so I don't have a bunch of statistical edges for the Cougars. I like the spot for Houston at home and I think they are the better team. Bet up to 4.5.