Alabama has lost two straight and is down to eight scholarship players tonight with Latrell Wrightsell, Taylor Bol Bowen and Keitenn Bristow all out. The Tide are 2-5 ATS in their past seven. MSU is fully healthy. The best player on the floor should be MSU's Josh Hubbard, who ranks among the SEC's top 15 in four categories: points per game (22.81– 1st), three-point field goals made (2.94 – 5th), three-point field goal percentage (34.6 – 9th) and assists per game (3.81 – tied for 11th).

This pick is all about the number. When Alabama opened -7.5, I wasn't interested. I made the Crimson Tide -6.5. However, when it dropped to 3.5 this morning, I had to jump on it. Alabama has lost two straight and will be without Latrell Wrightsell tonight. However, I don't think Mississippi State matches up well with the Tide. Both teams have bad defenses, so the Bulldogs will need to outscore Alabama. I'm not sure Mississippi State has the firepower to outlast the Tide for 40 minutes. The other factor here is the Bulldogs are a terrible foul shooting team and that could come into play late. I took -3.5 at BetMGM. Play up to -4.5 but no higher.