St. Mary's had a horrific offensive game last time out, versus Gonzaga in the WCC Championship Game. I look for the Gaels to come out sharp thanks to Randy Bennett and exploit their size against Vandy. It will take time for the Commodores to adjust to St. Mary's deliberate style. Look for the Gaels, No. 8 nationally in defensive efficiency, to control the first half.

I’ve called the Gaels' games this year, and their continuity, connectivity and chemistry make Randy Bennett's crew ultratough. Saint Mary's has the experience to finally advance in the tournament. The Gaels roll.

I'm going to hit St. Mary's now that a 4 popped at Caesars. The Gaels have a significant edge defensively and should dominate the offensive glass. Mark Byington did a great job in his first season with Vanderbilt but the Commodores are one of my lowest rated teams in the field. Vanderbilt really struggles defensively, ranking last in the SEC in efficiency, effective FG percentage and three-point FG percentage. St. Mary's should limit Vanderbilt in transition and make them play in the halfcourt. That's advantage Gaels. Try to get -4 but 4.5 is still good for a St. Mary's team that has a lot of key edges in this game.

Vanderbilt went 20-12 and had a great season in SEC play by making the tournament, but they lost their last three straight and six of their last nine. They play a high-scoring game, and that's where I think Saint Mary's is going to frustrate Vanderbilt on the court. Saint Mary's doesn't turn the ball over, rebounds well, and holds opponents to 60 points while averaging 73. Saint Mary's for the cover.

Teams that can own the boards and suffocate on defense will always get my attention this time of year. When you couple that with a backcourt that turns it over less than 10 times per game, I'm in. The Gaels could do damage in this bracket. Top 55 KenPom offensive team, top 10 D and play at about the slowest pace in the country, so you have to make every possession count. I don't think Vandy is going to get the volume of shots they need to maintain their offensive efficiency. St. Mary's allows just 31% from behind the arc. Vandy only 32.5% from 3 and worst 3-point D in SEC. Gaels 11-2 SU with 4+ days rest and Vandy is 5-9 SU as dog.

Saint Mary’s has one of the most efficient defenses in the country. They rely on their defense to dominate games and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country. The Gaels don’t give up easy buckets in the paint and one of the top rebounding teams, on the ends of the court, in the nation. Both teams struggles shooting the three and Vanderbilt’s perimeter defense is towards the bottom of the country. The Commodores aren’t strong from the free throw line and should have a difficult time getting second chance opportunities against this defense.

KenPom ranks WCC regular-season champion Saint Mary's at No. 22 nationally and SEC at-large Vanderbilt at No. 49 for this East Region game from Cleveland. I'm very high on the Gaels and the only thing I don't really like about this matchup is the location and start time, but otherwise I believe they have the far more talented roster -- and a lot of size (No. 1 nationally in rebounding margin). Even the Tennessean beat writer has picked SMC by five, so who am I to argue? Just getting here is a "win" for Vandy in its first Dance trip since 2017.