Merrimack’s offense revolves around one player, Adam Clark, who averages 20 points per game. The Warriors also play at a very slow pace and don’t get many offensive rebounds. Mount State Mary’s aren’t efficient from the free throw and neither team gets to the free throw a ton except for the end of the game. Their defense has also stepped up over their last three games, holding opponents to less than 64 points per game. Three of the last four meetings have gone under the total as well.

I have futures on Mount to win the MAAC tourney so consider that bias in your appraisal. But liked what I saw from them Thursday and they have been hot lately. They should be able to maul Merrimack on second and third chance points. Guards have to be better on the ball, but they've seen Merrimack pressure on the road already and won by 8. I don't think Merrimack will enjoy playing from behind if they have to. The Mount can frustrate on the boards and advance if they don't force contested threes, dominate inside, and get the closest thing Merrimack has to bigs in foul trouble.

We told you yesterday some ex coaches and sharp hoops guys believe The Mount can climb this summit and win this tourney in part due to the draw. Merrimack plays too slow and lack creativity to win by double digits and their best asset is defending the 3-ball. The Mount is middle of pack in MAAC attempting them and can dominate inside. Mount won at Merrimack by 8, winning on boards 43-23 and doubling them up in the paint. Mount needs to protect ball better and have been slightly better lately. Mount +5.6 on boards in MAAC play and Merrimack -11.6 (last). Merrimack is 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 8 or more. Mount can win this game and I have sprinkled ML.