Navy won both of the regular season meetings. This is the lowest total out each of those games as well. Neither of these teams play fast as the Eagles average less than 66 possessions per game and Navy, less than 69. The Midshipmen commit a lot of fouls but draw even more and both teams are shooting over 73% from the stripe on the season. However, since this game is being played on American’s home floor and they’re the slower team, dictating the pace and with every possession being meaningful in the conference final.

Forget Navy's losing overall record. The Midshipmen have scored in the mid 80s twice in the Patriot tournament, which sets them up well against the league's stingiest defense. They whipped American twice by a combined 31 points in the regular season. They own a superior points differential in league outings. They enter the finals on a 7-1 straight-up run. Navy has not qualified for the NCAA Tournament this century, but the long-slumbering Middies have awakened for a rare run in early March. The decent spot offer plenty of wiggle room for an SU loss and cover.

While pulling a hat-trick over a decent team is never easy, the Mids, even as they sit below .500 at 15-18, won't lack confidence in this Patriot finale after beating American U in both meetings this season, including a 81-58 romp at Annapolis and recent 68-60 win here at Bender Arena. The latter result intrigues because top scorer and recent on-fire GA Austin Benigni was held to 11 points; he's scored 24 or more in four of the five other games into tonight. Picking up the slack against the Eagles was backcourt mate Jordan Pennick, who scored 22 and has tallied nearly 18 ppg in Navy's last seven. Note that American didn't shoot better than 37% in either of the reg-season clashes. Play Navy (Patriot).