Alabama is off a rare home loss, granted it was to the best team in the nation. The Crimson Tide are 8-1 SU on the road, 6-3 ATS but Missouri is 16-1 SU at home and this by far their biggest game of the season to this point. At home, the Tigers shoot 58.5% effectively, averaging 85.5 points while holding their opponent to less than 66 points per game. Alabama’s defense has struggled of late, allowing 86 points over their last five road games. They don’t force turnovers, struggle at times protecting the balls and the Tigers are able to force those turnovers and able to draw fouls, getting to the free throw line.

Alabama is a stellar offensive team, leading the nation at 90.3 ppg, and Missouri no slouch at 82.6 ppg, but man 172 points. They both could get to 85 points and we could still win (86-85). Our model and most have around 167 points being scored. I tend to think the Tide -- who might be without two rotation guys -- might be a bit offensively flat after losing Saturday's home mega-showdown vs. No. 1 Auburn. No SEC opponent has even reached 76 points playing in Columbia this season. There is a winter storm warning for the area but the game will go on.