Texas is 20-12 overall but only 12-20 against-the-spread. The Longhorns have been overrated most of the season. The last 10 games they were 5-5, which is not very impressive. Colorado State has won five of its last six games. The Rams are on a roll and think they're a Sweet 16 team. Colorado State also shoots 49.0% from the field, 14th in the nation. Colorado state with the cover.

Colorado State head coach Niko Medved had his team dialed on Tuesday night in Dayton, and it's important to note the Rams were not just beneficiaries of Virginia's awful offense in their dominant win. That was a high level of efficiency for Colorado State against a well-coached Wahoos defense, and that will be important against Texas given the Longhorns ability to fill it up offensively. Texas presents challenges to any team on its roster with its wealth of scoring options, but the inconsistency of performance is why they are a 7-seed with 12 losses on the season. Give me the team in rhythm to keep it close or pick up the win.