Northwestern is 14-1 SU at home. The Hawkeyes are 3-8 SU on the road and 6-11 ATS in conference. Iowa has, technically, a top offense in the country with their up-tempo style of offense, however, they struggle on defense, allowing their opponents to score 81.9 points when playing on the road. The Wildcats have been shooting 41% from beyond the arc at home and have a strong home court.

I hit Northwestern on the opening number of 2.5 because I think the line will go up overnight. I make the Wildcats -5 in this matchup. I was surprised to see such a short number here. Northwestern is 14-1 at home this season with its only loss a surprising upset versus Chicago State back in December. As usual, Iowa is average away from home. The Hawkeyes have lost five Big Ten road games by an average of 10 points. Northwestern ranks first in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting percentage. I expect them to do damage against an Iowa defense that struggles to guard the perimeter. This comes down to value and 2.5 is just too low. I'll back Northwestern at home.