The total is dropping and was 136.5 this am. Cincy is a GREAT d first team and while Iowa State is a great home team….they are dreadful and shoot poorly on the road.

Iowa State is clearly the superior team here; the question is whether they can secure a victory on the road. I favor this matchup for them as they possess a distinct advantage in rebounding, are clearly the better defensive team, and Cincinnati has notably struggled as a favorite, boasting a mere 7-11 ATS record. Iowa State is a top 3 defense in College Basketball and currently ranks 8th in adjusted ShotQuality. I have Iowa State at -2.5 on the road against the Bearcats.

Models make Iowa State a 3.5-pt favorite. This game will likely come down to the final possessions, but the Cyclones are a bit better at everything across the board. One of the biggest numbers that stands out is Cincinnati's 47.5 eFG% since January 1. It's down from their 52 eFG% in non-con play because they've been shooting just 29% from 3 -- the worst rate in the Big 12. The Bearcats also have trouble holding onto the ball, with a 19% turnover rate. That will be a problem against a Cyclones defense that ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 in forcing turnovers and steals.