UNC comes off a huge win against Virginia but so did Florida St., upsetting Miami. Even with how disappointing the Seminoles season has been, they’ve been more efficient, offensively, than the Tar Heels of late. Florida St. is shooting 33.3 percent from behind the arc over their last three games and 48.5 percent from the floor at home. UNC struggles from the perimeter on the road at 28.3 percent and shooting it effectively at 44 percent over their last three. The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings as well. I’m on Florida St.

I'm not sure UNC should be an 8-point road favorite over Dunder Mifflin, much less FSU -- even though DM might be better than the Noles this year depending on Phyllis' availability. It's FSU's final home game and it is riding the momentum of a shocking comeback win at Miami on Saturday. Carolina has been brutal on the road and was lucky to win at ACC doormat Notre Dame in its most recent away game.

Since Jan. 1, the under in North Carolina’s ACC road games is 6-1 and I think we’ve got an opportunity to exploit some value here in a match-up between two teams that grade out on the faster end in terms of pushing the pace. It’s that up-temp pace and the perception of UNC basketball that gives us a high total, but the sneaky truth of the 2023 Tar Heels is how the defense, and the defensive rebounding in particular, is the closest thing the team has to a real strength. North Carolina is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, the offense rates 9th in the ACC in offensive efficiency in conference play and while this is still a team that’s averaging 77.1 points per game (37th nationally) it has only topped 73 points three times in its last 11 games. I think UNC needs to score more than 73 to cash this over, so I’ll take the other side.

This is a big number for the Tar Heels to lay on the road, They are 3-7 on the road (1-9 ATS) and squeaked by Notre Dame in their last away game. They haven't won in Tallahassee since 2016. On the road, UNC is shooting 28.3 percent from deep. Florida State is a miserable 9-20 but Leonard Hamilton's team has some confidence after coming back from a 25-point deficit to stun Miami. Take the points.